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Dogs Specked to Trouble the Pies

Friday Night AFL and the support has come for the Bulldogs, in from 4.6 to 4.0 with the Magpies out to 1.24 after opening at 1.19. The spread has shortened in from 31.5 to 25.5.

“This is an interesting match. SBM Price Ratings opened at Collingwood 1.38 and the Bulldogs 3.0 with the spread at 18. Then it appeared that the Bulldogs were getting back up to four players and we shortened them into 2.75 before team selection and the adjusted prices have ended up where they started.”

“To see the money arrive for the Dogs is not surprising because the Magpies have always been under the odds. The +31.5 at the start of the week should prove a safe bet.”

“The big concern for Dogs fans is their ruck. Tim English looks set for another savaging from Grundy and Cox and when you lose the ruck in this modern game you are in trouble.”

“The problem with Collingwood this season is they have been a boom side, starting favourite on three occasions and they are 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS.”

“Until Buckley gets them firing, we are happy to sit and watch. If you missed the +31.5 there are better matches to bet into.”

Collingwood were slow starters last season as well and the comparison year on year is, they are 86 (-2) compared to 89 (-7) this season.
Breaking that down is they have improved +2 in attack which is against the trend and lost ground defensively +5.

The Dogs are +13 with improvement in both categories +10 in attack and -3 in defence. Once they get players back and with an easier draw the Dogs could be in for a decent year.

In other matches North continue to be backed in from 2.3 to 1.95 supporting the home team outsider theory.

Gold Coast have been 1.67 into 1.57 most of that support after team selection.

The Saints have also been well specked in from 3.0 to 2.65.

Max Martin

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