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Backing Favourites in Grand Finals a Costly Strategy

Backing favourites in Grand Finals in the AFL and NRL is proving a costly strategy for punters over the past three years.

Since SBM launched in 2016, favourites are 1-5 in the big dances in both codes.

The only winning favourite has been the Melbourne Storm in 2017 when as easing 1.29 favourites destroyed the Cowboys (34-6) covering the spread (9.5) and pushing the game total over 32.5.

In 2016 the Bulldogs won the AFL flag as well supported favourites 2.60 into 2.56 defeating Sydney 1.59 and winning as +11.5 underdogs.

The Game Total went over 166.5 with the final score WB 110 d Sydney 87.

In the NRL that season the Storm lost the GF (12-14) to the Sharks as easing favourites 1.83 to 1.86 with the Sharks 2.06 to 2.02.

The Sharks won as 1.5 underdogs and the Game Total went under the 34.5.

AFL 2017 was another upset with the Tigers solid 2.2 underdogs beating the Crows 1.7 (108-60) with the Tigers winning as +6.5 dogs and the Game Total going over the 162.5.

This year the outsiders returned the dividends again for the favourites layers with the Eagles winning as +7.5 dogs and 2.25 versus the Magpies 1.67 and the game total under with the (79-74) score line.

The NRL was another loss for the Storm, losing as 1.67 favourites and the Roosters winning as +2.5 with the Game Total going under with the (6-25) final score.

In this period SBM is 4-2 with a 2-1 tipping line in both codes.


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